• Paul Goble

4 of 6 Scenarios End in Russian Collapse

The Clarksvillian

The University of Warsaw's Eastern European specialist, Kazimierz Woycicki, has concluded there are six potential scenarios for Russia’s future. From Moscow’s perspective, four are disastrous; and two are more hopeful, although apparently, in the Polish scholar’s view, less likely.

The four negative scenarios include:

The two more positive ones at least from the perspective of the Russian leadership at the present time, Woycicki argues, are “the restoration by Moscow of its influence with the acquisition of its ‘former imperial position’” and “modernization conducted based on cooperation with the West.”

Russia could fall apart if Moscow cannot cope with the difficulties of controlling its enormous territory or attract outside funding for investment. In the end, the Polish scholar says, Russia could lose everything to the east of the Urals and the Caucasus.

Woychicki reports any “’Balkanization’” of Russia would lead to threats not only to Russia itself but to the international community and likely generate wars around what is today the periphery of the country. The fourth scenario, likely if Russia weakens further, would cause a fundamental reordering of the international scene.

None of these is inevitable, however, the Polish expert continues. It is possible to high oil and gas prices will allow Moscow to build up the country and that weakness in the West will open the way for the restoration of a Russia-led empire.