The Local Winter Forecast Model = Wintry
Updated: Mar 13
(CU) - It seems like most of the enjoyable weather of our year was wasted on covid lock downs and restrictions. Will that change this winter? Who really knows at this point? What will change is the weather, and our forecasts are reporting an old-fashioned Tennessee winter is just around the corner.
The overall forecast is something that's become a bit of a regional anomaly the past few years. The winter months are planning a return to wintry weather this season. And, unfortunately, the Clarksville area is straddling the line with the region identified as having the "worst of winter". As a frame of reference, the past few years our weather has been in the "still stormy" category on the southern part of the map.
The temps may be one of the more solid categories of these models. How so? We are firmly in the middle of the slightly below average temps. Depending on your website of preference, our area's winter average high is 48F with an average low of 29F. We still get more than our fair share of sunny days in the winter, but plan on those sunny days being a little colder.
Winter precipitation is expected to be slightly above average for the Clarksville area. As you'll find with these maps, we walk a tightrope with the above average seasonal categories. Get the sandwich bags ready for your boots. Rain and slushy ice may be the rule of thumb.
The forecast for our average snowfall of 5" would be a substantial increase over the past few years. Then again, our snowfall averages are skewed by extremes and the approximate 30-mile distance from the "Above Average" region is an eye catcher. It's even more noticeable when you begin referencing the precipitation and temperature forecasts as already being above average.
First Snowfall Prediction
The attached maps walk us through the first snowfall predictions. The map shows our area expects to receive a first snowfall before January 2021. The Cumberland Plateau is firmly in the pre-January model with Clarksville narrowly sliding into that region as well. So that hint let's us know our first snowfall would be closer to January and not necessarily an early December or late November surprise.
The first clear appearance on the snowfall map is shown as snow falling after mid-December. The forecast estimates the holiday flakes will arrive between the 2nd and 4th week of December - peak holiday season!
Maybe the seasonal holiday snowfall will be the silver lining to our chilly and wet forecast for winter 20-21? If so, it's a weather trade many of us would gladly accept.